From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.
The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.